The reset is not an increase
It looks like one on the letter. It is not.
If you signed with two months free, your effective rent in year one was well below what the unit actually rents for — see true monthly cost for how that number is built. Month thirteen returns to the asking rent, plus whatever the market moved in twelve months.
That is why a lease that felt like a good deal in month one can jump several hundred dollars in month thirteen, and why the size of the jump is roughly the size of the concession you took.
The arithmetic
$1,400 asking rent, 12-month lease, six weeks free.
- Daily rate: $46.03
- Concession: 42 days × $46.03 = $1,933
- Effective monthly, year one: about $1,239
At renewal, with no concession and the asking rent flat, you are offered $1,400. That reads as a $161 increase. In reality the unit always cost $1,400 and year one was discounted.
Now add market movement. If asking rent moved up 3%, the offer is $1,442 and the felt increase is $203.
Neither number is a surprise if you asked the right question at signing.
The two questions
1. What did this unit renew at last year?
Properties can usually answer, and the answer tells you their renewal posture better than any market average. A building that renewed at 4% last year is telling you something about this year.
2. Does the concession repeat at renewal?
Sometimes there is a smaller renewal concession. Frequently there is none. Ask before you sign year one, because the answer changes whether you should be pricing one year or two.
Price two years, not one
Year one at $1,239 effective and year two at $1,442 averages $1,340 over 24 months. A building with no concession at $1,320 flat and a modest renewal is cheaper over the same period. That comparison is invisible if you only look at year one.
Timing and the notice clause
Renewal offers typically arrive 60 to 90 days before term end. Your lease also sets a notice-to-vacate deadline, commonly 60 days, and the standard Texas Apartment Association lease is explicit about it.
Miss the notice deadline and you can roll into a month-to-month holdover rate, which sits well above both the renewal and the market and is designed to. That is the most expensive way to be undecided.
Diary the notice deadline the day you sign, not the month it arrives.
What to do when the offer lands
- Calculate what you actually paid in year one — effective rent plus the fee stack.
- Get the renewal number plus any fee changes.
- Compare against effective rent at two or three comparable nearby buildings, this month.
- Cost the move itself: application fees, deposit, movers, utility setup, any overlap.
- Decide, with the notice deadline in front of you.
That is the whole method, and it is what renew or move does. Sometimes the answer is renew. We say so on those days, and we earn nothing.
Every figure we send, including renewal comparisons, carries the date it was verified — see true monthly cost for how we build the number.